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Why Andrew Luck is worth the risk in fantasy drafts

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A few weeks ago, I wrote about how Deshaun Watson should be the No. 1 fantasy quarterback this season based upon his huge upside being much more valuable than his risky downside. By very similar logic, Andrew Luck should also be drafted as a legitimate starting fantasy quarterback in fantasy leagues this season.nfl nike jerseys cheap china

What’s that, you say? He hasn’t played a down since the 2016 season? He’s still working with a junior football because he hasn’t progressed to a full-sized regulation NFL football yet?

Doesn’t matter. We know the risk with Luck. Anyone (like yours truly) who had him on a team (or teams) last season and watched him go from an early-season stash to a later-season cut knows that nothing is guaranteed with him. Last season at this time, we were told that his shoulder wasn’t so bad and that, even if it was worse than the Colts were letting on, he could miss the start of the season but be back in October. And, of course, that was completely not the way it played out.53

But even with all of that, Luck is worth the risk because of his established and proven ability to generate fantasy points at an elite level. And that is a commodity worth taking a risk on. Let’s take a look at what Luck did in his last two primarily healthy seasons.

In 2014, Luck played in all 16 games and passed for 4,761 yards, 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions (297.6 yards, 2.5 touchdowns, 1.0 interception per game). He also ran 64 times for 273 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns (4.0 rushes, 17.0 yards, 0.19 touchdowns per game).

In 2016, Luck played 15 games and passed for 4,240 yards, 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions (282.7 yards, 2.1 touchdowns, 0.9 interceptions per game), while rushing 64 times for 341 yards and two touchdowns (4.0 rushes, 22.7 yards, 0.13 touchdowns per game).

Another plus is that the Indianapolis Colts invested a bit in their offensive line and receiving corps, which have been weak for much of Luck’s tenure. When healthy, he has been able to thrive even with question marks in those units.cheap nike nfl jerseys from china

All told, despite the injury risk, Luck actually represents a relatively small risk for fantasy managers at his current draft slot. Getting a player with legitimate fantasy MVP upside in the ninth round or later should be a no-brainer, and if he is healthy this season, I expect Luck to be on a lot of fantasy football champion teams.

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